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VCs are using SaaS-era multiples on companies whose marginal cost is falling 90% per year. The math doesn't work.
The ones who figure it out first will print money.
Here's the thing about AI startups: their unit economics are inverted. Compute is...
VCs are mispricing AI startups by 40%.
Hard claim. Hear me out.
They're using SaaS-era multiples on companies whose marginal cost is falling 90% per year.
You can't price a 90%-deflation business like a 30%-margin one. The math doesn't work.
The founders who figure it out first will print money.
Reading a16z's latest AI thesis last night. Something didn't add up.
They're modelling AI startups like SaaS — 70% gross margin, sticky NRR, all the usual.
Marginal cost on inference is falling 90% per year. You can't apply SaaS multiples to a 90%-deflation business.
Here's how the math actually works…
"You can't price a 90%-deflation business like a 30%-margin one."
VCs are stuck in the SaaS playbook. The ones who break out first will print money. ✦